Preview of New Report

The American Institute of Architects’ ABI Index – a leading economic indicator of non-residential construction activity 9-12 months into the future – remained above 50 in January, coming in at 50.9, virtually unchanged from 51 in December, and the first three-month string of readings above 50 since last spring. The reading above 50 means the number of architects reporting “rising billings” outpaced the number reporting “declining billings.”

The new project inquiry index was relatively stable at 61.2, down nominally from 61.5 at fairly elevated levels. While in the recent past, we have been somewhat cautious about putting too much weight on the new inquiries index because it does not account for rebidding, and the index has remained above 50 consistently since January 2009, and there was clearly no predictive value in calling an upturn. We would note though that the new inquiries index has been much higher the past two months than during the first 10 months of the year when it ranged from 52.6 to 58.7 and the significantly higher readings have in fact coincided with a higher overall ABI reading.