Archive for: ‘February 2012’

Gerdau (GGB) Adding New Rebar Capacity in the US; Spinning Off Mining Assets – Thoughts from the 4Q Conference Call

February 22, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Gerdau SA (GGB) reported 4Q EBITDA of R$1.025B, ahead of the Street’s R$1.013B and last year’s R$815m, but down 16% sequentially.

Shipments reached 4.7m tonnes in 4Q, compared with 4.5m tonnes in 4Q 2010, with the increase particularly owing to an increase in demand in Brazil and the US. Brazil saw growth in civil construction, while the North American market benefited from improved manufacturing and energy demand. Shipments in the quarter fell from 4.8m tonnes in 3Q; management said that the seasonal decrease in Brazil was offset by increased exports of semi-finished steel, and North American shipments exceeded expectations considering the affect of winter on construction.

Management expects global steel consumption to rise by 5.4% in 2012, with 70% of the consumption from developing economies where most of Gerdau’s operations are; GGB expects the US to see a gradual, consistent recovery.

The company also talked about plans to increase rebar capacity in the US as well as the potential for a spin-off of GGB’s iron ore assets.

Our full report is available to subscribers only and provides further thoughts on Gerdau’s 4Q earnings report and conference call as well as the implication for the stock and other equities.

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Russel Metals (RUS) – Dividend Increase Likely; Oil Sands Growth and M&A to Highlight 2012 – Thoughts from the 4Q Conference Call

February 22, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Russel Metals (RUS) reported 4Q earnings of C$0.46/share exceeding the Street’s C$0.40, 3Q’s C$0.43 and the year-ago EPS of C$0.26. The seasonal pick-up in energy tubulars as well as a volume increase in the steel distributors segment contributed to the strong results.

Management said 1Q has started off well with strong order intake and mill price increases apparently holding, though the company doesn’t have a strong sense of where prices are heading.

The company said that M&A activity is expected to pick up in 2012 and that a dividend increase in 2012 is likely.  Management expects steady demand for energy tubulars in 2012, with the primary growth driver being oil sands projects.

Our full report is available to subscribers only and provides further thoughts on Russel’s 4Q earnings report and conference call as well as the implication for the stock and other equities.

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Sims Metal Management – Acquisition Growth to Continue; Ferrous Scrap Export Prices Recovering – Thoughts from the Conference Call

February 22, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Sims Metal Management (SMS) reported EBITDA of A$69 million for the six months ended December 31, 2011 (fiscal 1H 2012), less than half the A$149 million in EBITDA reported in the year-ago period as difficult business environments in North America and the UK hurt operating margins.

Guidance was qualitative with Sims saying that scrap intake has begun to recover while deep sea ferrous export prices firmed in December and January, and recovered once again most recently after a slight softening at the beginning of February.

Management said the company will continue to grow through acquisitions and recently purchased a stake in a Chinese metal recycling company.

Our full report is available to subscribers only and provides further thoughts on Sims’ half-year (ending December 31, 2011) earnings report and conference call as well as the implication for the stock and other equities.

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Arch. Billings Index Remains Above 50 in January – New Report Preview

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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The American Institute of Architects’ ABI Index – a leading economic indicator of non-residential construction activity 9-12 months into the future – remained above 50 in January, coming in at 50.9, virtually unchanged from 51 in December, and the first three-month string of readings above 50 since last spring. The reading above 50 means the number of architects reporting “rising billings” outpaced the number reporting “declining billings.”

The new project inquiry index was relatively stable at 61.2, down nominally from 61.5 at fairly elevated levels. While in the recent past, we have been somewhat cautious about putting too much weight on the new inquiries index because it does not account for rebidding, and the index has remained above 50 consistently since January 2009, and there was clearly no predictive value in calling an upturn. We would note though that the new inquiries index has been much higher the past two months than during the first 10 months of the year when it ranged from 52.6 to 58.7 and the significantly higher readings have in fact coincided with a higher overall ABI reading.

U.S. Weekly Rig Count Increases Slightly

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

The number of active oil and natural gas rigs in the United States rose 0.3% to 1,994 for the week ending February 17, 2012, and is up 16.4% from year-ago levels.

The highest weekly rig count in the United States since 1940 was recorded on December 28, 1981, at 4,530; the lowest was recorded on April 23, 1999, at 488.

The number of rigs in Canada this week decreased 0.6% from 709 last week to 705, but was 10.9% higher than last year.

The highest rig count for Canada was 727 on February 3, 2006; the lowest was 29, recorded on April 24, 1992.

Source: Baker Hughes Inc.

China to Increase Export Tax Rebates – Impact on Steel Worrisome

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan was quoted by China Daily promising increases of export tax rebates, “at an appropriate time,” something Beijing has not done since 2009.

The government said that “labor intensive” sectors would benefit, without providing specifics, but we believe there may be some risk that this could include steel, given the sector’s prior history of export tax rebates to facilitate exports.

Our new report provides our thoughts on the near-term and longer-term impact of this news.

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January Global Steel Production Posts Seasonally Weak Gain – First Look

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Good news for the global steel industry in weak January production, which rose a scant 0.9% from December, far less than the typical seasonal uptick of 2.5%. The data may have been skewed to the negative as China’s Golden Week holidays fell earlier than usual, and in fact the China Iron & Steel Association’s production “flash” report for the first 10 days of February showed that output rose 1.9% from late January levels, although this is still nearly 15% below peak levels seen in June 2011, as Chinese steel demand has yet to recover to normal levels following the Golden Week holidays.

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Vale – Emerging Economies to Accelerate in 2H 2012 – Thoughts from the 4Q Conference Call

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Vale’s 4Q 2011 adjusted EBITDA came in at $7.396B, below the Street’s forecast of $8.032B, and down significantly from 3Q’s all-time high of $9.631B.

Guidance was for a potentially brighter global economic outlook for 2012, fueled by emerging economies which are expected to see acceleration in the second half of 2012. Declining global inflation, improved monetary policies, and inventory building could also be positive drivers in 2012.  The company said that construction has slowed down meaningfully in China, but a recovery was likely when winter ends.  Vale commented that the second quarter may also see an uptick in activity as the government pursues its housing program.

Our full report is available to subscribers only and provides further thoughts on Vale’s 4Q earnings report and conference call as well as the implication for the stock and other equities.

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Canam Group (CAM) – Fourth Quarter Earning Top Estimates, Uptrend in Demand Likely to Continue – Thoughts from the 4Q Conference Call

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Canam (CAM) reported fourth quarter net income of C$3.3 million, or C$0.07/share, up from C$1 million, or C$0.02/share in 4Q 2010. Earnings beat the Street’s C$0.01/share, ranging from C$0.06/share to a loss of C$(0.03)/share. Sales for the period rose by 17.4% to C$286.3 million from C$243.8 million in the year-ago period.

The company said that while it is too early to make any forecast for 2012, markets should be able to continue in the upward trend that began last year.

Our full report is available to subscribers only and provides further thoughts on Canam’s 4Q earnings report and conference call as well as the implication for the stock and other equities.

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January Distributor Shipments Hit Post-Recession High

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Months’ supply (MOS) declined a seasonally normal 0.5 to a healthy 2.3 months in January, as MSCI shipments jumped 26.0% from December to the highest level since September 2008, more than offsetting a 5.1% uptick in total inventories which put tonnage at the highest since November 2008.

The pick-up in January shipments was slightly better than the normal seasonal increase of 23.8%, as continued strength in energy and automotive markets drove stronger-than-normal shipments for plate and flat-rolled.  Partially offsetting this strength was weaker-than-usual shipments for bar, beams and pipe.

Total inventories rose to 8.35 million tons (mt) in January, as tonnage increased for all products, especially beams, pipe and bar.

Our full report is available to subscribers and provides further thoughts on December distributor shipments and inventories by product as well as implications for steel equities.

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