The Association of American Railroads (AAR) announced that the nation’s major freight railroads are projected to invest a record $13 billion in capital expenditures in 2012 to expand, upgrade, and enhance the nation’s freight rail network as well as to hire more than 15,000 new workers.

“As the demand to move more freight by rail increases and a significant percentage of the rail workforce hits retirement age, freight railroads are continuing to add and fill jobs nationwide…Freight rail spurs the American economy and supports jobs all across the country,” said Edward R. Hamberger, AAR President and CEO.

Railroad companies have been spending 17% of their annual revenue on capital expenditures in recent years, compared with the average manufacturer that spends roughly 3% on cap ex. According to Hamberger, railroad companies are reportedly spending 17 percent of their yearly revenue on capital expenditures, up from the average 3 percent for other manufacturers. Because they are privately-owned companies and owned independently, these investments won’t negatively impact taxpayers.

Freight railroads have roughly 175,000 employees nationwide, many of whom are veterans and reservists. One in five of recent new railroad hires are veterans. Rail employee compensation averages roughly $100,000 per year, with jobs ranging from engineers and dispatchers, to law enforcement, to information technology and industrial development.

“These jobs are well paying, highly skilled careers that cannot be offshored,” Hamberger said.

Source: Association of American Railroads (AAR)

Steel Market Production Increases – For 2012, participants in China’s iron ore market expect the country’s crude steel output to reach 700-720mt, representing a 3-5% y-o-y increase. If seen, this would be the lowest growth in the past decade.

Steel Market Production Increases – Emirates Steel has commissioned the region’s first heavy section mill as part of its expansion program at its integrated complex in Musaffah.

Sources: Steel Business Briefing and Gulf Construction

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims the week of February 4, 2012 totaled 358,000, a decrease of 15,000 from 373,000 the week of January 28, 2012. The seasonally adjusted four-week moving average also showed a slight decline, dropping from 377,250 to 366,250.

Insured Unemployment Figures Rise Slightly

In terms of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures, the advance seasonally adjusted unemployment rate the week of January 28, 2012 was 2.8%, a fractional increase from 2.7% the week of January 21, 2012. The advance seasonally adjusted total number of insured unemployed people rose about 2%, from 3.415 million to 3.515 million. However, the four-week moving average decreased about 1%, from 3.531 million to 3.498 million.

Actual Claims Show Higher Total

The actual (unadjusted) number of initial unemployment claims the week of February 4, 2012 was slightly higher at 397,810. However, there was also a slightly larger drop from the previous week’s unadjusted total of 422,287. The advance unadjusted unemployment rate the week of January 28, 2012 was 3.2%, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate.

Fewer Federal Employees File Initial Claims, but More Vets

A total of 1,696 former federal civilian employees filed initial unemployment claims the week of January 28, roughly a 3% drop from 2,172 the prior week. However, there were 2,843 initial claims from newly discharged veterans, a 16% jump from 2,448 the previous week.

California Sees Highest Initial Claims Growth

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending January 28 were in California (+4,571), Washington (+2,795), Florida (+2,293), Texas (+1,485), and Oregon (+1,420), while the largest decreases were in Tennessee (-1,855), Connecticut (-1,523), Oklahoma (-1,353), Alabama (-1,297), and North Carolina (-1,221).

Source: US Department of Labor

China’s mercantilist challenge to American manufacturing is rapidly spreading from low-value consumer goods to dozens of advanced manufacturing sectors, according to a new study from the USBIC.

The study, titled “Chinese Market Share in Advanced U.S. Manufacturing Grows at Accelerating Pace,” points out that China in 2010 supplied 7.5 percent of cross-section of high-value American manufactured products, and growth in these sectors accelerated during the current recession, rising 16 percent in 2009, and 19 percent in 2010. The report can be accessed by clicking here.

Study author Alan Tonelson said, “These findings demolish the still-widespread view that Chinese economic competition can be safely downplayed because it’s largely confined to cheap consumer goods. Dozens of America’s high value industrial crown jewels are steadily becoming just as vulnerable to Chinese competition as clothing, shoes, and toys.”

The USBIC report shows that China’s greatest advanced manufacturing successes in the U.S. market have come in electronics products, like computers (where China supplied 61 percent of Americans’ purchases in 2010) and broadcast and wireless communications equipment (nearly 29 percent).

Source: United States Business and Industry Council

United States Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced earlier this week that the United States signed agreements with the European Union (EU) and Japan that will bring an end to a 9-year dispute with these trading partners over zeroing. Zeroing is a preferred methodology used to calculate margins in certain types of dumping transactions. According to Tom Danjczek, President of the Steel Manufacturers Association, both the SMA and the Administration were disappointed that according to WTO, alternate methods will now be used to administer results.

According to the USTR’s office, however, these two agreements will head off the risk of the potential for hundreds of millions of dollars of lost exports due to trade retaliation coming from the EU and Japan, resulting in jobs lost for U.S. workers and financial losses for U.S. farms and businesses.

Responses from the steel community were both supportive and cautious.

Leo Gerard, USW International President said, “USW members have been a petitioner or supporter of more than a third of the antidumping cases brought against imports during the last twenty years. Strong trade remedy laws are important for stopping the destructive practices of many of our trading partners who dump products in our market that harm our union members and domestic producers.”

American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) President and CEO, Thomas Gibson, anticipated the need for either clarification of WTO policies or further agreements with other US trading partners.

“AISI condemns the several rulings by the World Trade Organization (WTO) against zeroing…USTR Ron Kirk has emphasized that the Administration will continue to work to obtain a clarification that the WTO rules permit zeroing, which is critical to making our trade laws work.  We strongly support this position by the Administration, and will continue to work with USTR and the Commerce Department to correct these errant decisions by the WTO.”

Source: United States Trade Representative, United Steelworkers, American Iron & Steel Institute.

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Our Advance/Decliner Index fell back to 64% again this week despite strengthening prices in China after rebounding to 78% from 64% last week. The drop was driven by our Ex-China Index falling from 79% to a nine-week low of 59% as pricing in East Asia and the MENA region weakened.  These regions have been the engine of volatility in our Index over the past three weeks and we suspect that the volatility has been driven by strengthening demand offset by weakening scrap prices.

Our China Index jumped to 86% from zero as spot prices for a number of steel products posted modest gains as business resumed following the Golden Week holidays.

Our full report provides further thoughts about global steel pricing trends and our outlook as well as implications for steel equities.

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According to just-published data from American Metal Market (AMM),  February shredded scrap (obsolete) and #1 busheling (prime) scrap prices fell a greater-than-expected $30 and $45/ton (or 6.4% and 8.7%) to $440/ton and $475/ton, giving back a large chunk of the $60/ton and $70/ton gains seen the over last two months.

The $30 ton decline in shredded most probably is due to reduced overseas demand from Turkey who was largely out of the market in the month – or purchasing from Europe – and several Asian countries who were celebrating the Lunar New Year holidays.  We suspect the much-larger-than-expected $45/ton drop in prime scrap grades is likely the result of at least one major domestic steelmaker making opportunistic foreign purchases of pig iron for February arrival – and thus reducing the mill’s appetite for prime scrap – and  stronger than expected factory activity, which generates more prime scrap.

Globally lowered steel production and milder US weather contributed to weakness in all types of scrap this month, as balmy and dry conditions facilitate increased scrap flows.  February scrap may have been hit with a double-whammy, as forecasters had been calling for a difficult winter, so mills most probably bought more material ahead of time.

Our full report provides our scrap and steel price outlook as well as the implications for steel equities.

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February scrap prices look set to take a worse than expected tumble when final settled prices come out on Monday, as preliminary data on the American Metal Market (AMM) website indicates that shredded scrap (obsolete) and #1 busheling (prime) scrap will decline some $30 and $45/ton (or 6.4% and 8.7%) to $440/ton and $475/ton, giving back a large chunk of the $60/ton and $70/ton gains seen the over last two months.

The $30/ton likely drop in shredded most probably is due to reduced overseas demand from Turkey who was largely out of the market in the month – or purchasing from Europe – and several Asian countries who were celebrating the Lunar New Year holidays.  We suspect the much-larger-than-expected $45/ton drop in prime scrap grades is likely the result of at least one major domestic steelmaker making opportunistic foreign buys for February arrival as well as reduced pig iron prices and  stronger than expected factory activity (which creates prime scrap).

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