L.B. Foster (FSTR) – Outlook for Rail and Tubular Markets Bright, Construction Market to Remain Competitive – Thoughts from the 4Q Conference Call

February 27, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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L.B. Foster (FSTR) reported adjusted 4Q earnings of $0.62/share, missing the Street’s $0.67/share, as the company’s construction products business saw a sharp drop in 4Q sales.

While the company’s visibility into 2012 is limited for construction markets due to the lack of a new transportation bill, management believes that the non-res construction market has bottomed.  The outlook for the rail segment is brighter due to strong capex spending budgets from North American class 1 railroads in 2012 as well as increased rail traffic.  The company also expects continued growth in its tubular business in 2012.

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February 27, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Steel Market Production Changes – February 24, 2012

February 24, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

Steel Market Production Cuts – ArcelorMittal’s 1.8 mtpy capacity coil plant in Sestao, northern Spain, is expected to continue to be idled during March, due to minimal scrap purchases in the last two weeks.

Steel Market Production Cuts – Moldova Steel Works’ (MMZ), which has been idle for the last two months, should have resumed production in the past few days, but its restart will be delayed for a few more weeks due to scrap procurement issues.

Sources: Steel Business Briefing

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February 24, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Steel Market Production Changes – February 23, 2012

February 24, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

Steel Market Production Cuts – Luxembourg-based steel producer ArcelorMittal has extended the temporary idling of two blast furnaces at its Florange site in eastern France due to poor demand and slower than expected recovery.

Steel Market Production Increases – Mechel, the Russia-based metal and mining company, has resumed the operations at three out of its four mills in Romania, and production at the remaining plant, Targoviste is due to restart on February 27th.

Steel Market Production Increases – Vallourec SA is nearing completion of its new 500,000 tpy seamless pipe mill in Youngstown, Ohio, with the mill on schedule to restart commercial production this summer as it ramps up to the targeted capacity.

Steel Market Production Increases – Vietnam’s SSE Steel is defying difficult market conditions to bet on the future of the construction sector in Vietnam by adding 350,000 tpy of new rebar and wire rod capacity by the end of 2012.

Sources: American Metal Market and Steel Business Briefing.

Initial Jobless Claims Stay Flat Week of Feb. 18

February 23, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims the week of February 18, 2012, totaled 351,000, unchanged from a revised estimate of 351,000 the week of February 11, 2012, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The seasonally adjusted four-week moving average dropped slightly, decreasing by 7,000 from a revised 366,000 to 359,000

Insured Unemployment Figures Also Steady

Looking at seasonally adjusted unemployment figures, the advance seasonally adjusted unemployment rate the week of February 18 was 2.7%, also unchanged from the prior week. Meanwhile, the advance seasonally adjusted total number of insured unemployed people declined about 1%, from 3.44 million to 3.39 million. The four-week moving average also decreased about 1%, from about 3.5 million to 3.45 million.

Actual Claims Fall

The actual (unadjusted) number of initial unemployment claims the week of February 18 was a slightly lower 345,216, a decrease of 19,888 from the previous week’s figure of 365,104. The advance unadjusted unemployment rate the week of January 28, 2012 was 3.1%, up slightly from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.1%.

Fewer Federal Employees, Vets File Initial Claims

A total of 1,383 former federal civilian employees filed initial unemployment claims the week of February 11, a 12% decline from 1,578 the prior week. And in a shift from the trend of the past few weeks, there were 2,520 initial claims from newly discharged veterans, a 10% drop from 2,723 the week before.

California Changes Pace in Initial Claims

California has led all states in the number of initial claims for the past few weeks tracked by the Department of Labor. However, for the week ending February 11, California has the highest number of decreases (-8,462). The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 11 were in Massachusetts (+853), Puerto Rico (+352), Nebraska ( +345), Hawaii (+ 85), and Rhode Island (+69), while the largest decreases besides California occurred in Pennsylvania (-3,789), New York (-2,429), North Carolina (-2,199), and South Carolina (-1,538).

Source: US Department of Labor

Advance/Decliner Index Rebounds as MENA Pricing Strengthens

February 23, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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After falling to a 10-week low of 49% last week, our Advance/Decliner Index rebounded to 66% as steel prices strengthened in the MENA region on the back of higher scrap prices, pushing our Ex-China Index up to 71% from 50%.

Our China Index remained mostly stable at 50%, compared with 46% the week prior.  The Chinese market is still treading water – with some increases here and there, but just as many decreases.  We suspect the usual post-holiday pickup is not yet appearing largely because the holidays were so early this year and winter is still blunting construction demand.

Our full report provides further thoughts about global steel pricing trends and our outlook as well as implications for steel equities.

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ABI Posts Third Consecutive Reading Above 50 – More Bullish Reads on the Domestic Economy

February 23, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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The American Institute of Architects’ ABI Index – a leading economic indicator of non-residential construction activity 9-12 months into the future –  remained above 50 in January, coming in at 50.9, virtually unchanged from 51.0 in December, and the first three-month string of readings above 50 since last spring.  The reading above 50 means the number of architects reporting “rising billings” outpaced the number reporting “declining billings.”

The new inquiries index remained near a four and a half year high at 61.2, while six out of the eight sub-indices posted readings above the 50 mark, indicative of billings growth.

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January Global Steel Production Posts Seasonally Weak Gain

February 23, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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January global steel production rose a less than seasonally normal 0.9% to 116.7 million tonnes (mt), compared with the typical monthly gain of 2.5%, as Chinese production fell by 0.2% and output in South Korea dropped 13.9%.  Production was down some 7.8% compared with year-ago levels as production in Asia and the EU were down some 11.4% and 5.6%, respectively, with China posting the largest year-on-year decline – at 13.0% – since October 2008.

Production in the EU rose a seasonally-normal 11.9% driving the overall gain, while US production increased for the third straight month to the highest level since September 2008.

Korea also posted a significant year-over-year decline of 9.6%, which was unexpected given the additional steelmaking capacity Korean steelmakers have brought online.  The decline is good news for the US market which saw a 39% increase in imports from Korea in 2011.

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Steel Market Production Changes – February 22, 2012

February 22, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

Steel Market Production Cuts – Steelmaking operations at China’s Angang Heavy Machinery (AHM), one of China’s largest machine manufacturers, have been idled indefinitely after an explosion on February 20th that has left 13 workers killed and 17 injured. The cast steel plant involved in the incident has a 450,000 tonnes/year EAF and is capable of producing 30,000 t/y of steel castings, 100,000 t/y of ingots and 280,000 t/y of steel billet, according to company data.

Steel Market Production Cuts – The Sparrows Point, Md.-based steelmaker, RG Steel LLC, has temporarily idled its 4,000 tpd blast furnace at its Warren, Ohio, steelmaking complex following a Saturday morning tuyere failure, and the company expects the repairs to take about a week.

Steel Market Production Cuts – Turkish steel producers’ association (DCUD) expects February production to fall below January figures because of electricity and natural gas cuts that have affected steel production since the beginning of February.

Steel Market Production Increases – Argentinean longs producer Acindar’s expansion plan is progressing well as the company – controlled by global steel giant ArcelorMittal – prepares to make an extra 25,000 tonnes/year of special bar quality (SBQ) products in the short to medium term.

Steel Market Production Increases – Colombia’s steel industry may record 5% growth this year and reach 1.82m tonnes of production as a result of investments made by domestic and foreign steelmakers.

Steel Market Production Increases – Russia’s NLMK is conducting hot trials on a second 2m tonnes/year ladle furnace (LF), and the fourth LF in total, at its steelworks in Lipetsk, and the company expects to bring its combined ladle furnace capacity to 12 mtpy shortly.

Steel Market Production Increases – Tata Steel expects to complete the installation of two roller hearth furnaces at its thin slab casting and rolling plant at its integrated works in Jamshedpur (India) by the end of the first quarter of 2012. Both the furnaces have a reheating capacity of up to 280 tonnes/hour of slab.

Steel Market Production Increases – Korea’s Dongkuk Steel Mill expects capacity utilization at its heavy plate facilities to return to normal from next month after conducting output cutbacks since last December as it foresees plate demand recovering steadily after the first quarter.

Steel Market Production Increases – According to the latest survey by China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), China’s daily crude steel output is expected to increase by 1.9% to 1.7045 mt in early February as steel traders replenish their stockpiles following the Lunar New Year.

Sources: Steel Business Briefing, American Metal Market, Arab Steel, and Mysteel.