January Global Steel Production Posts Seasonally Weak Gain – First Look

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Good news for the global steel industry in weak January production, which rose a scant 0.9% from December, far less than the typical seasonal uptick of 2.5%. The data may have been skewed to the negative as China’s Golden Week holidays fell earlier than usual, and in fact the China Iron & Steel Association’s production “flash” report for the first 10 days of February showed that output rose 1.9% from late January levels, although this is still nearly 15% below peak levels seen in June 2011, as Chinese steel demand has yet to recover to normal levels following the Golden Week holidays.

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Vale – Emerging Economies to Accelerate in 2H 2012 – Thoughts from the 4Q Conference Call

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Vale’s 4Q 2011 adjusted EBITDA came in at $7.396B, below the Street’s forecast of $8.032B, and down significantly from 3Q’s all-time high of $9.631B.

Guidance was for a potentially brighter global economic outlook for 2012, fueled by emerging economies which are expected to see acceleration in the second half of 2012. Declining global inflation, improved monetary policies, and inventory building could also be positive drivers in 2012.  The company said that construction has slowed down meaningfully in China, but a recovery was likely when winter ends.  Vale commented that the second quarter may also see an uptick in activity as the government pursues its housing program.

Our full report is available to subscribers only and provides further thoughts on Vale’s 4Q earnings report and conference call as well as the implication for the stock and other equities.

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Canam Group (CAM) – Fourth Quarter Earning Top Estimates, Uptrend in Demand Likely to Continue – Thoughts from the 4Q Conference Call

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Canam (CAM) reported fourth quarter net income of C$3.3 million, or C$0.07/share, up from C$1 million, or C$0.02/share in 4Q 2010. Earnings beat the Street’s C$0.01/share, ranging from C$0.06/share to a loss of C$(0.03)/share. Sales for the period rose by 17.4% to C$286.3 million from C$243.8 million in the year-ago period.

The company said that while it is too early to make any forecast for 2012, markets should be able to continue in the upward trend that began last year.

Our full report is available to subscribers only and provides further thoughts on Canam’s 4Q earnings report and conference call as well as the implication for the stock and other equities.

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January Distributor Shipments Hit Post-Recession High

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Months’ supply (MOS) declined a seasonally normal 0.5 to a healthy 2.3 months in January, as MSCI shipments jumped 26.0% from December to the highest level since September 2008, more than offsetting a 5.1% uptick in total inventories which put tonnage at the highest since November 2008.

The pick-up in January shipments was slightly better than the normal seasonal increase of 23.8%, as continued strength in energy and automotive markets drove stronger-than-normal shipments for plate and flat-rolled.  Partially offsetting this strength was weaker-than-usual shipments for bar, beams and pipe.

Total inventories rose to 8.35 million tons (mt) in January, as tonnage increased for all products, especially beams, pipe and bar.

Our full report is available to subscribers and provides further thoughts on December distributor shipments and inventories by product as well as implications for steel equities.

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RTI International Metals (RTI) – Guides to Improved 2012 Results; 787 Program Remains a Source of Frustration – Thoughts from the 4Q Conference Call

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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RTI International Metals (RTI) reported a breakeven 4Q, which adjusted to earnings of roughly $0.05/share excluding acquisition costs and a true-up of the company’s tax rate, below the Street’s $0.10/share, but an improvement from a loss of $0.05 in the year-ago period.  Management attributed the improvement from a year ago partially to increased titanium mill shipments as a result of a pick-up in commercial-aircraft build rates, though the company expressed disappointment in the ramping up of the 787 program and cited delays in the Joint Strike Fighter program. The Fabrication Group was hampered by delivery delays from third parties, management said.

Guidance for 2012 – assuming the Remmele Engineering acquisition closes by the end of 1Q – is for operating income of $45-50m (up sharply from $27.8m in 2011), sales of more than $700m (compared with $529.7m for 2011), and total mill product shipments of 15.5m-16m pounds (compared with 14.7m pounds in 2011).

Our full report is available to subscribers only and provides further thoughts on RTI’s 4Q earnings report and conference call as well as the implication for the stock and other equities.

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Domestics Cut Most Long Product Prices by $30/ton; Rebar by $15

February 21, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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According to trade press, domestic long product producers (including industry leader Nucor) are reversing January pricing moves effective immediately, as scrap pricing gains of $30/ton reversed themselves.

Prices for beams and merchants are being reduced by the full $30/ton decline in the scrap surcharge (or 3-4%), while a $15/ton base price increase for rebar, will partially offset the surcharge drop, resulting in a smaller, net transaction price drop of $15/ton (or 2%).

Our full report provides further thoughts about domestic and global steel prices as well as the implication for steel equities.

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PMA Expects A Spike in Business Conditions

February 20, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

Metalforming companies predict a spike in business conditions during the next three months, according to the latest monthly 2012 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report. The February edition of the report, which samples 138 metalforming companies in the US and Canada, indicates 51% of participants expect metalforming economic activity to improve during the next three months. This figure is up roughly 25% from 41% who held a positive outlook in January.

Meanwhile, 45% of participants predict that metalforming activity will remain unchanged, down roughly 9% from 54% in January, and only 4% predict activity will decline, a 20% drop from 5% the prior month.

Incoming Order Improvement also Expected

Metalforming companies also anticipate a slight improvement in incoming orders during the next three months, with 56% of participants forecasting an increase in orders, (up roughly 10% from 51% in January. In addition, 33% expect no change, down about 17% from 40% last month, although 11% predict a decrease in orders, up about 22% from 9% the prior month.

Average Daily Shipping Levels Rise

Average daily shipping levels rose significantly in February with 45% of participants reporting shipping levels above levels of three months ago, up 50% from 30% in January. There was a slight decrease in the number of participants reporting shipping levels remaining flat from three months ago,dropping dropping about 6% from 48% to 45%, and a dramatic decline in the number  reporting a decrease, which fell about 54%, from 22% in January to 10%.

Layoffs Fall Off

The percentage of metalforming companies with a portion of their workforce on short time or layoff dropped to 7% in February, down about 42% from 12% in January.  This number has not been at this level since December 2006, the last time only 7% of companies reported workers on short time or layoff.

Source: Precision Metalforming Association

BlueScope Mum on Ohio Expansion Update; Retains JP Morgan to Sell NA Assets; Reports $530M 1H Loss

February 20, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Australian steel company BlueScope Steel Ltd. today reported a $530 million net loss after tax (NLAT) for the first half FY2012, including significant one-off restructuring costs of $260 million, an impairment of deferred tax assets of$184 million and income advanced under the Federal Government’s Steel Transformation Plan (STP)  of $46 million. The 1H FY2012 NLAT is 9.6 times larger than the 1H FY2011 NLAT of $55 million.

The WSJ is reporting that the company has hired JP Morgan to sell its North American assets, which the company has alluded to liquidating in the past.

The company alluded to further growth at its Delta, Ohio Northstar-Bluescope joint venture (with Cargill) but did not give an update to previously disclosed potential to raise the plant’s capacity from 2.1mtpy to 2.5mtpy with the addition of a second caster.

Underlying NLAT Almost Triples Y-O-Y

Underlying NLAT for the half also grew dramatically year-over-year, totaling $129 million, which includes year-end net realizable value (NRV) adjustments of $53 million. Excluding NRVs, the result was $76 million. This is 2.7 times the underlying NLAT of $47 million for the prior corresponding period in 1H FY2011.

BlueScope Plans Debt Reduction

Company executives say it is on track to deliver a full year working capital release of $400-500 million and has initiatives for further debt reduction. The company has deferred the recognition of a tax asset totaling $184 million in respect of tax losses generated during the half year, largely due to export losses and restructuring costs. BlueScope has deferred the recognition of any further tax asset for the Australian tax group until a return to taxable profits has been demonstrated. Australian tax losses are able to be carried forward indefinitely.

As of December 31, 2011, net debt was $796 million, a reduction of $759 million since October 31 2011 including a working capital reduction of $357 million. BlueScope expects an additional reduction in working capital in the second half, noting in Q3 FY2012 there will be a seasonal increase in working capital and further payments associated with the restructure of the Australian business. The current total cost of the Australian restructure is still in the range of $430-450 million, of which $350-370 million is expected to be paid in FY2012

2H Outlook Includes Lower NLAT

For 2H FY2012, BlueScope expects a slightly lower underlying Net Loss After Tax (excluding period end net realizable values (NRVs) and/or impairments, subject to spread, currency exchange rates and market conditions, compared with the 1H FY2012 result, including expectation of a return to a profitable underlying run rate by the end of FY2012.

Source: BlueScope Steel, Wall Street Journal

SSAB – Weak 4Q Results; Timing Pricing Gains Tough – Thoughts from the Conference Call

February 17, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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SSAB reported an adjusted loss of SEK 220m, well short of the Street’s forecast of SEK 338m and 3Q EBIT of SEK 502m.  Management attributed weak 4Q results to continued weakness in Europe, marked by inventory destocking by customers, partly offset by relatively strong performance in the Americas.

Guidance was fairly limited although management said signs of a recovery, including restocking, are apparent in the U.S. and SSAB expects plate prices in North America to increase sequentially, as several plate producers have announced 1Q increases.  Declining steel prices in most parts of the world in 4Q will have a negative impact on the company’s 1Q contract prices and results, while lower iron ore prices renegotiated for 1Q delivery would not benefit SSAB’s results until 2Q.

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Rio Tinto (RIO) – Confident in Medium/Long-Term Market Trends, but Cost Pressure Concerns Remain – Thoughts from the Conference Call

February 17, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Driven by strong commodity pricing, Rio Tinto (RIO) reported 2011 EBITDA of $28.5B, higher than the Street’s $27.2B, and a 10% uptick from $26.0B in 2010, as the company recovered from severe flooding in 1H and a difficult market for the company’s aluminum business.

In the near term, Rio said the U.S. appears to be recovering, though risks remain, and China’s economy could be achieving a soft landing with expected growth of 8% in 2012, offsetting problems in Europe. Rio remains concerned about cost pressures but remains confident in the medium- and long-term market for its products.