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Recently released and revised Chinese steel production and import/export data have painted a very different picture of the steel business in China so far in 2012 which goes far in explaining the extent of the pricing weakness we saw through the first two months of the year.

There were meaningful revisions to January and February steel production data, which left production some 11.2% higher than originally disclosed by the China Iron & Steel Association, meaning the supply of steel in China was far greater than originally thought, while new trade statistics released over the weekend showed that the “balance of trade” in steel in February dropped 23.7% from January – as a result of a 9% decline in exports and a 34% increase in imports.

Our full report is available to subscribers only and provides further thoughts on Chinese steel trade balance and the implication for steel equities.

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