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February import licenses are down 10% from last month to 2.31 million tonnes (mt), according to Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis (SIMA) licensing program.  While there is typically some decline in February imports due to the short month, we’re nevertheless surprised at the magnitude – which adjusted for fewer days would still point to a 4% decline.

Meaningful declines were seen for rebar (down 43%), line pipe (down 38%), beams (down 36%), cut-to-length plate (down 25%), OCTG (down 14%) and semi-finished steel (down 6.0%).  The biggest increase was seen for wire rod, up some 62%.  Total sheet licenses rose a modest 4% although the trend differed across products.  Tonnage of hot-dipped galvanized sheet and coiled plate rose 36% and 29%, partially offset by a 25% drop in cold-rolled sheet licenses.  Hot-rolled sheet licenses were up just 1%.

Our full report is available to subscribers and provides further thoughts on February import licenses as well as our outlook for the coming months and implications for steel equities.

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