New Report Preview

April preliminary steel imports increased 3.4% to 3.0 million tons (mt) from March’s 2.9 mt as an 8.0% increase in finished steel imports was only partially offset by a 10.2% drop in semi-finished steel imports.  The uptick puts year-to-date imports nearly 30% higher than year-ago levels.

The increase was driven by a 46.8% jump in sheet tonnage to the highest level since December 2006.  While there was some pricing premium for domestic sheet in early January, we suspect that much of the jump in sheet imports is now being driven more off of a supply-push import surge due to overproduction in other regions, particularly China.

Chinese imports jumped 35.6% in April to the highest level since July as overproduction in the country has resulted in a 28% increase in exports year-to-date.  We believe China is the main reason behind the 55.7% surge in wire rod imports – to a 4-year high – while Chinese steelmakers have also continued to ship higher levels of cold-rolled and coated sheet products that benefit from China’s VAT export tax rebates.

Our full report is available to subscribers and provides further thoughts on April imports as well as our outlook for the coming months and implications for steel equities.

For a free trial subscription, please contact Jasmine.