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The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) ABI Index – a leading economic indicator of non-residential construction activity 9-12 months into the future – dropped to below 50 in April, meaning that the number of architects reporting “declining billings” outpaced the number reporting “rising billings” for the first time in six months. The dramatic deterioration in the index is disappointing.
While ABI economists pointed to the impact of warmer weather in the 1Q, we’d disagree because architects’ billings lead construction by 9-12 months – as the AIA says itself every month – so that the likelihood is that a real deterioration in business conditions drove the change.
Our full report is available to subscribers and provides further thoughts on the April ABI Index as well as the impact on steel equities.
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