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April MSCI shipments declined a seasonally normal 2.1% from March, but a 4.3% increase in flat-rolled inventories drove total inventories 3.3% higher than March levels to a post-recession high, resulting in adjusted months’ supply rising from 2.32 to 2.45, the highest months’ supply in over a year.

The jump in flat-rolled inventories puts still further pressure on the weak sheet market, which has been feeling the effects of a surge in imports recently.  We suspect some buyers may have come off the sidelines when sheet prices were starting to rise in March as well.  Inventories of all other products rose during the month, with plate up 2.9%, beams up 1.1%, pipe up 1.0% and bar up 0.3%.

Our full report is available to subscribers and provides further thoughts on April distributor shipments and inventories by product as well as implications for steel equities.

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