Our Advance/Decliner Index fell to a five-month low this week with the decline driven by our Ex-China Index falling to… more

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We expect to see March scrap prices settle in the up $30-40/ton range, which would put prime and obsolete scrap at the highest levels since… more

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We would caution readers that only half of the AISI reporting companies release their weekly production in “real time” so the other half of this data is estimated using the last month’s reported production & operating rate. What this means is that when production is changing, the weekly data is actually understating the change.

Capacity utilization came in at 75.2%, down from 75.4% last week and from the year-ago level of 78.5%.

The lowest production since the recession began was 800,000 tons for the week of December 27, 2008, while the highest was 2.005 mt for the week of May 12, 2012. The lowest capacity utilization rate since the recession began was 33.5% for the week of December 27, 2008; the highest was 81.1% on May 12, 2012.

Source: AISI and Steel Market Intelligence

The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) ABI Index – a leading indicator of non-residential construction activity – broke the critical 50 mark for the fifth consecutive month, but fell… more

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CRC Lead times came in at 6 weeks – up from 5.6 in the week prior, while HDG was flat with last week at 5.8 weeks.

Sources: The Steel Index, Steel Business Briefing

HDG and CRC lead times also fell – with HDG coming in at a 5-week low of 5.9 weeks from 6.6 in the week prior and CRC falling to a 6-week low of 5.6 from 6.0 in the week prior.

Sources: The Steel Index, Steel Business Briefing

According to Mr. Edwards, CRU’s expectations for GDP growth are 2.3% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014, assuming the fiscal cliff is averted. CRU’s expectation for steel demand through 1H13 is for a seasonal if not real recovery in demand along with a corresponding rise in prices from today through the end of 1H13.

Looking at specific markets, CRU anticipates automotive production in the United States to hit 14.9 million vehicles this year – gradually moving up to 17.2 million in 2017. Residential and non-residential construction activity is also expected to start showing growth totaling about 7% in the next 5 years.

Mr. Edwards did offer some caution regarding prices in the longer term, saying that HRC prices will likely peak in 2Q13 at $665/t and begin to drift downwards over the next 5 years due to slipping raw materials prices – after which CRU sees HRC below $600 on a sustained basis.