Posts Tagged: ‘global steel’

CRU Offers Upbeat Outlook for Steel in the Near-Term

November 5, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

At CRU’s 6th annual North American Steel Conference held in Chicago last week, CRU Managing Consultant Robert Edwards presented the group’s outlook for steel demand and pricing going forward.

According to Mr. Edwards, CRU’s expectations for GDP growth are 2.3% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014, assuming the fiscal cliff is averted. CRU’s expectation for steel demand through 1H13 is for a seasonal if not real recovery in demand along with a corresponding rise in prices from today through the end of 1H13.

Looking at specific markets, CRU anticipates automotive production in the United States to hit 14.9 million vehicles this year – gradually moving up to 17.2 million in 2017. Residential and non-residential construction activity is also expected to start showing growth totaling about 7% in the next 5 years.

Mr. Edwards did offer some caution regarding prices in the longer term, saying that HRC prices will likely peak in 2Q13 at $665/t and begin to drift downwards over the next 5 years due to slipping raw materials prices – after which CRU sees HRC below $600 on a sustained basis.

Steel Goes Head-to-Head with Alternative Materials at CRU’s 6th North American Steel Conference

November 5, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

At CRU’s 6th annual North American Steel Conference held in Chicago last week, panelists debated the long-time question of materials use in coming generations of automobiles.

On the side of Advanced High Strength Steels (AHSS),  Dr. PK Rastogi – Global Automotive Marketing Manager at ArcelorMittal said that it’s possible to build a car that can attain 54.5 mpg using AHHS while shifting to aluminum aluminum achieves only marginal improvement on this figure at higher cost.

Following this up was Curt Horvath – Technical Fellow of Materials and Corrosion Engineering at GM who said that he doesn’t see the auto industry moving away from steel due to the investments it has made in steel processing.

Ron Krupitzer – VP Automotive Applications at the American Iron & Steel Institute pointed out that when it comes to the total life-cycle carbon footprint of a vehicle made from AHSS vs. one made from aluminum, magnesium and carbon fiber – the vehicle made from AHSS had the smaller carbon footprint.

Umesh Gandhi – a scientist at the Toyota Research Institute of North America – said that much of the weight-savings AHSS can yield has been achieved already and that the next lowest hanging fruit is going to come in the form of glass fiber materials.

Alcoa’s Director of Automotive Sheet, Randall Scheps argued that aluminum is now 343 pounds of weight in the average car and that compared to engine modifications fuel efficiency gains are easier to achieve by switching to aluminum. He went on to say that the product they offer works with existing auto presses and that in 8 years he foresees 10 times the demand for rolled aluminum products.

Our Conclusion? In the 1970s at the time of the first gas crisis in the United States, the aluminum industry first stepped up to offer CAFE-compliant auto bodies to Detroit. In the 40+ years since that time, aluminum’s inroads have been meager as steel has stayed ahead of the curve with lightweighting, improved formability, longer-lifespan and dramatically improved recycling. We suspect that Detroit will stick with the tried-and-true.

 

 

 

Scrap Outlook – November Scrap Prices Set to Rebound

November 2, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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After declining nearly 20% over the past two months, we believe that November scrap buys will be done at higher levels in the coming days, with increases as large as $30…more

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Steel Market Production Report – Unplanned Outage at Severstal Dearborn

November 2, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

Steel Market Production Cuts – Russian steelmaker Severstal North America has been forced to halt crude production at the Dearborn, MI facility due to an explosion in a cold air pipe, but the finishing end will continue to operate.

Steel Market Production Increases – U.S. Steel announced that a 500,000 tpy continuous annealing line will be commissioned at the PRO-TEC joint venture in early 2013. The line will produce “high-strength, lightweight steels for the auto industry.”

Steel Market Production Cuts – ArcelorMittal South Africa announced that it has idled the EAFs at the Vanderbijlpark plant due to government claims it has violated emission regulations.

Steel Market Production Increases – Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau will begin operations at a 770,000 tpy hot-strip mill in December or January next year and is considering increasing crude steel and longs capacity by 280,000 tpy and 425,000 tpy at the Colina facility in Chile.

Steel Market Production Increases – Brazilian steel producer Usiminas has commissioned a 2.3 mtpy hot strip mill and a 500,000 tpy finishing line at the Cubatao facility.

Steel Market Production Cuts – Italian steelmaker Beltrame announced that it will permanently shutter two merchant bar rolling mills in Luxembourg and Belgium with 450,000 tpy of combined capacity.

Steel Market Production Cuts – Chinese steelmaker Shagang is planning a two-month maintenance outage that will result in 400,000 tonnes of lost output.

Sources: Steel Business Briefing, American Metal Market, SteelOrbis

Lead Times Mostly Unchanged

November 2, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

HRC and HDG lead times for the week ending October 28 remained at last week’s levels of 3.3 and 5.4 weeks respectively

CRC lead times posted the lone increase rising to 4.9 from 4.8 in the week prior.

Sources: The Steel Index, Steel Business Briefing

HRC = Hot Rolled Coil
CRC = Cold Rolled Coil
HDG = Hot Dipped Galvanized

U.S. Rig Count Plunges to Lowest Level Since April 2011

November 2, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

The number of active oil and natural gas rigs in the United States fell by 26 to 1,800 for the week ending November 2, 2012, down 1.4% from the previous week and down some 11.2% from a year-ago.

The highest weekly rig count in the United States since 1940 was recorded on December 28, 1981, at 4,530; the lowest was recorded on April 23, 1999, at 488.

The number of rigs in Canada rose 3.5% to 383 from 370 last week, but was 19.5% below the year-ago level.

The highest rig count for Canada was 727 on February 3, 2006; the lowest was 29, recorded on April 24, 1992.

Source: Baker Hughes Inc.

 

October ISM Steel Survey Shows Meaningful Uptick from September; Rolling Recessions?

November 2, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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The October Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Steel Survey showed a drastic improvement from September, which may have been one of the worst reports …more

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Advance/Decliner Index Jumps Back Above 50

November 2, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Our Advance/Decliner Index rose to a five-week high as rising scrap prices drove higher steel prices in the MENA region and announced sheet price hikes started to take hold …more

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Russel Metals (RUS) – Steel Prices Under “Significant” Pressure; “Hope” Bottom Is Near – Thoughts from the 3Q Conference Call

November 2, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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Russel Metals (RUS) reported 3Q earnings of C$0.37/share, below the Street’s C$0.42/share and 2Q’s clean $C$0.45/share. Given the recent sheet price increase…more

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October OCTG Prices Plunge Again; Surging Imports Driving Prices Down

November 1, 2012 Posted by Steel Market Intelligence

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According to Pipe Logix, October OCTG prices declined for the seventh straight month, falling another $40/ton (or 2.2%), and bringing the two-month drop to $80/ton, the …more

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