According to Mr. Edwards, CRU’s expectations for GDP growth are 2.3% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014, assuming the fiscal cliff is averted. CRU’s expectation for steel demand through 1H13 is for a seasonal if not real recovery in demand along with a corresponding rise in prices from today through the end of 1H13.

Looking at specific markets, CRU anticipates automotive production in the United States to hit 14.9 million vehicles this year – gradually moving up to 17.2 million in 2017. Residential and non-residential construction activity is also expected to start showing growth totaling about 7% in the next 5 years.

Mr. Edwards did offer some caution regarding prices in the longer term, saying that HRC prices will likely peak in 2Q13 at $665/t and begin to drift downwards over the next 5 years due to slipping raw materials prices – after which CRU sees HRC below $600 on a sustained basis.